Heat-Not-Burn Market By Product Type (Devices, Tobacco Sticks, Capsules/Cartridges, Accessories); By User Type (Regular Smokers, Occasional Smokers, Non-Smokers [Users switching from vaping or non-combustible alternatives]); By Flavor (Tobacco Flavor, Menthol Flavor, Fruit Flavor, Others [Custom/Unique Flavors]); By Age Group (18-24, 25-44, 45 and above); By Geography, Segment revenue estimation, Forecast, 2024-2032.

The heat-not-burn market was worth USD 20.3 billion in 2023 and will be worth USD 214.83 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 34.3% during the forecast period.

 

The heat-not-burn (HNB) market is fueled by growth in the quest for a non-conventional smoking delivery system, as well as growing health consciousness in combustible tobacco products. According to the World Health Organisation, more than one billion people in the world smoke, and many of those smokers are in search of a reduced-risk option. These are HNB products that heat tobacco instead of burning it, and they are said to have fewer toxicants than cigarettes. For instance, Philip Morris International has stated that more than twenty million adults will have transitioned to its Heat Not Burn IQOS device by 2022, proving the new trend. Other factors driving the formation include regulatory modifications, including the U.K.’s new bend towards freer regulation of HNB than traditional cigarettes. Subsequent evolution is also emerging progress, such as the release of British American Tobacco’s Glo Hyper X2 in 2023 is expanding the accessibility of HNB products for more markets and thus pushing forward the demand growth.

 

The global heat-not-burn (HNB) market remains a promising sector because of the constantly rising demand from customers who are looking for less hazardous alternatives to smoking conventional cigarettes and the enhancement of state-led programs for the mitigation of negative consequences of smoking. While currently, more than 80% of smokers from around the world live in LMICs, as awareness and disposable income rise, these consumers will seek out less hazardous forms of tobacco products. Japan is a good example, where HNB products already constitute more than a quarter of the tobacco market thanks to the early start and favorable legal prerequisites. In 2022, Philip Morris International launched the IQOS ILUMA series onto the international market with new and enhanced technologies that involve induction heating for efficiency and better experience. The growth in this market is expected to rise every term as more regions, such as Europe and some parts of Asia, continue to liberalize their policies on HNB products compared to combustible cigarettes.

 

Heat-Not-Burn Market Segmentation 

By Product Type:

• Devices

• Tobacco Sticks

• Capsules/Cartridges

• Accessories

 

By User Type:

• Regular Smokers

• Occasional Smokers

• Non-Smokers (Users switching from vaping or non-combustible alternatives)

 

By Flavor:

• Tobacco Flavor

• Menthol Flavor

• Fruit Flavor

• Others (Custom/Unique Flavors)

 

By Age Group:

• 18-24

• 25-44

• 45 and above

 

By Region

North America

• US

• Mexico

• Canada

• Rest of North America

 

Europe

• Switzerland

• Russia

• France

• Germany

• U.K

• Finland

• Turkey

• Netherlands

• Belgium

• Spain

• Italy

• Rest of Europe

 

Asia Pacific

• India

• China

• South Korea

• Japan

• Singapore

• Thailand

• Indonesia

• Malaysia

• Philippines

• Australia

• Rest of Asia-Pacific

 

LAMEA

• Brazil

• Argentina

• Uruguay

• Saudi Arabia

• Rest of LAMEA

 

Segment Analysis for the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) Market

By Product Type:

Leading Segment: Devices

Devices account for over 45% of the market share as they are the primary component enabling the heat-not-burn technology. With advancements in device technology, such as reduced heating times and longer battery life, leading brands like IQOS (by Philip Morris International) dominate this segment. The segment is growing steadily at a CAGR of 8%, driven by rising adoption among consumers seeking alternatives to traditional smoking.

Fastest-Growing Segment: Tobacco Sticks

Tobacco sticks are growing at a CAGR of over 12%, as they represent the consumable component for HNB devices. Companies like British American Tobacco (BAT) are introducing innovative tobacco stick flavors to cater to regional preferences, such as menthol in Europe & tobacco-rich flavors in Asia. Their affordability & recurring demand make this segment highly lucrative.

 

By User Type:

Leading Segment: Regular Smokers

Regular smokers make up more than 60% of the market for HNB products because they see them as a safer alternative to traditional cigarettes. The continuous drop in cigarette smoking, along with marketing campaigns that emphasize lower risks, has boosted this segment. Japan, which has one of the largest groups of HNB users, shows a significant number of regular smokers switching to these products.

Fastest-Growing Segment: Non-Smokers (Switching from Vaping or Non-Combustible Alternatives)

This segment is growing at a CAGR of 14% as non-smokers increasingly switch to HNB products, considering them a safer alternative to vaping. Governments regulating e-cigarettes in regions like Europe & North America have contributed to this shift. Young adults in the U.S. are moving from vaping to HNB products following stricter policies on flavored vape products.

 

By Flavor:

Leading Segment: Tobacco Flavor

Tobacco flavor is still the top choice, making up 50% of the market, because it appeals to people switching from regular cigarettes. Brands like HEETS (from IQOS) offer rich tobacco flavors to attract traditional smokers. This segment keeps growing because it provides a familiar cigarette-smoking experience.

Fastest-Growing Segment: Fruit Flavor

Fruit flavors are growing at a CAGR of 13%, especially among younger consumers aged 18-24 who prefer flavored alternatives over traditional tobacco. In regions like Asia Pacific & Europe, fruit flavors such as berry, mango & citrus are gaining traction. For example, KT&G's Lil products have introduced region-specific fruit flavors to target younger demographics.

 

By Age Group:

Leading Segment: 25-44

The age group 25-44 dominates the market, holding over 50% of the share due to their higher disposable income & willingness to explore innovative smoking alternatives. Professionals in this category are particularly attracted to the reduced health risks associated with HNB products. In markets like South Korea and the U.K., this age group represents the majority of HNB users.

Fastest-Growing Segment: 18-24

The 18-24 age group is growing at a CAGR of 15%, driven by their preference for flavored options & trendiness associated with HNB products. Marketing campaigns on social media platforms & collaborations with influencers play a crucial role in attracting younger audiences. For instance, in Europe, fruit and menthol-flavored HNB products are particularly popular among this demographic.

 

By Region:

Leading Region: Asia Pacific

The Asia-Pacific region holds over 40% of the market share, with Japan and South Korea being the main adopters of HNB products. The growth is driven by supportive regulations and cultural acceptance of HNB as a safer product. In Japan, for instance, Philip Morris International's IQOS has a significant market share, thanks to strong marketing and distribution networks.

Fastest-Growing Region: Europe

Europe is the fastest-growing region, with a CAGR of 13%, fueled by increasing awareness of reduced-risk products & the adoption of stricter regulations on traditional cigarettes. Countries like the U.K., Germany & Italy are seeing a surge in demand for HNB products due to campaigns promoting them as safer alternatives. British American Tobacco has seen significant growth in its HNB sales across Europe, particularly in the menthol flavor segment.

 

Heat-Not-Burn Market Key Players 

• Philip Morris International

• British American Tobacco

• Japan Tobacco Inc.

• KT&G Corporation

• Imperial Brands

• China National Tobacco Corporation

• Motrex

• Vapelux Group

• Shenzhen Yukan Technology

• RRD Tobacco

 

Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) Market Report Coverage

Report Attribute	Details
Forecast Period	2023 – 2030
Market Size Value in 2023	USD 20.3 billion
Revenue Forecast in 2030	USD 214.83 billion
Overall Growth Rate	CAGR of 34.3%
Base Year for Estimation	2022
Historical Data	2017 – 2021
Unit	USD Billion, CAGR (2023 - 2030)
Segmentation	By Product Type, By User Type, By Flavor, By Age Group, By Region
By Product Type	Devices, Tobacco Sticks, Capsules/Cartridges, Accessories
By User Type	Regular Smokers, Occasional Smokers, Non-Smokers (switching from vaping or non-combustible alternatives)
By Flavor	Tobacco Flavor, Menthol Flavor, Fruit Flavor, Others (Custom/Unique Flavors)
By Age Group	18-24, 25-44, 45 and above
By Region	North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, LAMEA
Country Scope	US, Canada, Mexico, UK, Germany, France, China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, etc.
Pricing and Purchase Options	Avail customized purchase options to meet your exact research needs.