Report Description Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Strategic Context The Global Packaging Resins Market is projected to reach USD 395.7 billion by 2030 , up from an estimated USD 278.4 billion in 2024 , growing at a CAGR of 6.0% during the forecast period (2024–2030), according to Strategic Market Research. Packaging resins are the backbone of modern consumer and industrial packaging — providing structural integrity, barrier performance, transparency, and cost efficiency. From flexible films wrapping food items to rigid containers holding chemicals, resins such as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET) , and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) are foundational to nearly every packaging format on the market. This market’s relevance has intensified since 2020 — not just from a supply chain lens, but because packaging is now a front-line interface for health, e-commerce, and sustainability. Rising consumer expectations around shelf-life, convenience, recyclability, and safety are pushing resin developers to rethink formulations and resin blends. On the supply side, resin manufacturers are dealing with a shifting regulatory landscape, resin price volatility, and increasing demand for post-consumer recycled (PCR) content. Three forces are now reshaping this market: Decarbonization pressure : Regulators in the EU, Canada, and parts of Asia are introducing bans or taxes on virgin plastics, pushing brands toward circular resin sourcing. E-commerce packaging growth : With surging online retail, there's higher demand for high-performance films and rigid formats that can withstand transport stress. Monomaterial innovation : Brands are investing in single-polymer packaging formats that improve recyclability — leading to renewed interest in PE and PP-based resins. Stakeholders range from petrochemical companies (who produce virgin and bio-based resins), packaging converters , and brand owners , to retailers and regulators . There’s also a growing presence of waste management startups and chemical recyclers , who are entering resin value chains through partnerships and reverse logistics. To be honest, this market isn’t just about volume anymore. It’s about chemistry, carbon footprint, and circularity — all competing for attention at once. And that’s why packaging resins, long treated as a commoditized input, are now a boardroom-level topic for global consumer brands. 2. Market Segmentation and Forecast Scope The packaging resins market is segmented across four primary dimensions: resin type , packaging format , end-use industry , and geography . Each of these plays a unique role in how resins are selected, engineered, and priced — depending on shelf-life, recyclability, aesthetics, and regulatory demands. By Resin Type Polyethylene (PE) This includes LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE grades. Used in flexible films, grocery bags, shrink wraps, and containers. PE dominates due to its versatility and price-performance ratio. In 2024, PE accounts for 39% of global volume. Polypropylene (PP) Favored for its rigidity, heat resistance, and low density. Used in yogurt tubs, microwave trays, and pharmaceutical caps. Growth is driven by rising demand for mono-material packaging. Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Known for its clarity and barrier properties. Common in bottled water, soft drinks, and increasingly in food trays. PET recycling infrastructure is mature in North America and Europe, driving demand for food-grade recycled PET ( rPET ). Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Used in blister packs, shrink sleeves, and cosmetics packaging — though under scrutiny due to environmental concerns. Polystyrene (PS) and Others PS remains relevant in foam-based food containers, but sustainability pressure is forcing a shift toward biodegradable alternatives. Polypropylene is expected to be the fastest-growing resin type through 2030, driven by mono-material packaging goals and increasing recyclability. By Packaging Type Flexible Packaging Films, pouches, sachets, and wraps. Often multi-layered and used in food, personal care, and pharmaceuticals. Flexible formats represent the largest segment by volume — thanks to lower material use and lightweight transport. Rigid Packaging Bottles, jars, caps, tubs, and trays. Rigid resins must deliver stiffness, impact resistance, and sealing performance. PET and HDPE dominate this segment. While flexible packaging leads by share, rigid packaging is regaining traction in food and medical sectors for its reusability and recyclability advantages. By End-Use Industry Food & Beverage The largest application — spanning everything from dairy films and frozen food bags to beverage bottles and ready-meal trays. Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Uses include blister packs, IV fluid bottles, and tamper-proof containers. This sector values barrier protection and chemical resistance. Consumer Goods Detergents, toiletries, homecare products — where visual appeal and toughness matter. Industrial Packaging Bulk containers, lubricant bottles, and chemical drums. Here, strength and regulatory compliance are critical. Food & Beverage leads the market in both volume and innovation, but Healthcare is the most resilient and regulation-driven segment. By Region Asia Pacific Accounts for over 45% of global demand — led by China, India, and Southeast Asia. High birth rates, urbanization, and expanding FMCG access are major drivers. North America Focused on sustainable resin sourcing, closed-loop systems, and post-consumer recycled content. Europe Shifting fast toward circular plastics — with growing demand for bio-based and chemically recycled resins. Latin America & Middle East/Africa (LAMEA) Still catching up in terms of infrastructure, but increasingly adopting resins for food security, export packaging, and logistics. Asia Pacific remains the growth engine, while Europe is the proving ground for low-carbon resin innovation. Scope Note: While these segments may sound familiar, the real action is happening in the crossovers — like recycled PET in rigid pharma bottles, or PP in flexible monolayer pouches. The market isn’t just growing; it’s mutating in response to circularity, price pressure, and policy mandates. 3. Market Trends and Innovation Landscape Let’s be clear — the packaging resins space isn’t just reacting to pressure; it’s rewriting its own playbook. From bio-feedstock experiments to resin-smart sensors, the industry is shifting from commodity-driven to technology-enabled. Here's how the innovation curve is evolving. 1. Recyclability Isn’t a Trend Anymore — It’s a Design Mandate The old approach of using complex, multilayered films is fading. Brands now want design-for-recyclability built into the resin itself. That’s fueling demand for: Mono-material solutions (e.g., all-PE or all-PP pouches) Easily delaminated barrier films for flexible packaging Compatibilizers that help different polymers recycle together A senior packaging executive in Europe put it plainly: “If it can’t be recycled or reused, we won’t spec it for 2026 and beyond.” 2. Post-Consumer Recycled (PCR) Resins Are Maturing PCR materials used to be a tradeoff — lower quality, less predictable. Not anymore. Thanks to advanced sorting, cleaning, and extrusion, food-grade rPET and recycled HDPE are now hitting the mainstream. CPG brands are locking in multi-year PCR supply agreements, creating a demand surge for: Closed-loop PET systems for beverage bottles Recycled PP in personal care and rigid food trays PE-PCR films for secondary packaging and retail bags Europe is setting the tone here. Regulatory minimums on PCR content are already law in places like France and Spain. The U.S. and Canada are following suit. 3. Bio-Based and Compostable Resins: Still Niche, But Growing Let’s be honest — bio-based resins are still more expensive than fossil-derived ones. But they’re gaining in two key areas: Single-use foodservice packaging : where compostability matters Luxury or premium branding : where sustainability is a marketing differentiator Materials like PLA, PHA , and bio-PE are getting attention — especially as oil price volatility makes long-term resin pricing unpredictable. Some startups are now exploring carbon-negative polymers made from algae or captured CO2. 4. Smart Packaging + Resin Engineering This one’s under the radar. Some converters are embedding sensors or markers directly into packaging resins — enabling real-time freshness tracking, anti-counterfeiting, or supply chain tracing. These aren’t standalone electronics; they’re part of the resin chemistry. For example: UV-activated resins that change color when exposed to heat Embedded QR markers in rigid PET that track package lifecycle Antimicrobial resin coatings that extend shelf life It’s early days, but these technologies are aligning with the rise of connected supply chains. 5. Chemical Recycling: Not Just a Buzzword Anymore Mechanical recycling has limitations — especially with colored , multilayered, or contaminated plastics. That’s why chemical recycling (pyrolysis, depolymerization, solvent-based extraction) is gaining investor and regulatory interest. Several resin giants are now partnering with chemical recyclers to produce “drop-in” virgin-quality resins from mixed waste — especially rPET and rPE . Early pilot plants in Europe and the U.S. are already feeding supply chains for food packaging. One executive summed it up: “Mechanical recycling helps us comply. Chemical recycling helps us compete.” Bottom line: This market is no longer about resin versus resin. It’s about resin-plus-sustainability, resin-plus-function, and resin-plus-data. And that’s where innovation is now flowing — fast. 4. Competitive Intelligence and Benchmarking The global packaging resins market is crowded in volume, but differentiated by chemistry, circularity, and end-use alignment. The major players aren’t just selling commodity pellets — they’re positioning themselves as solution providers for a packaging industry in transformation. Let’s break down how leading players are staking their claim. 1. ExxonMobil Still a heavyweight in polyethylene and polypropylene, ExxonMobil focuses on ultra-high-performance PE grades used in food films, e-commerce mailers, and stretch wraps. Their Exceed XP and Enable lines are marketed not just for performance, but for downgauging — helping converters use less material per package. Strategically, they’re investing in advanced recycling (via partnerships and pilot facilities) to bolster circularity credentials and compete in the PCR space. 2. Dow Dow blends innovation with brand alignment. Their INNATE resins are engineered for strength, clarity, and sealability — ideal for retort pouches and stand-up zipper bags. Where they shine is collaboration : Dow actively co-develops with brand owners to design monomaterial , recyclable flexible formats. They’ve launched programs like RecycleReady and signed circular economy pacts in Europe and Asia. Dow is essentially becoming a downstream influencer — helping shape packaging formats, not just supplying resin. 3. SABIC Based in Saudi Arabia but globally active, SABIC has been aggressive in developing certified circular polymers . Their TRUCIRCLE™ portfolio includes bio-based, mechanically recycled, and chemically recycled resins — all backed by mass balance certification. They’ve struck deals with Unilever, Tupperware, and Mars for closed-loop packaging. Their differentiator? A strong presence in both virgin and circular resins , offering portfolio continuity as brands transition. 4. LyondellBasell A major global player in polyolefins, LyondellBasell is investing heavily in chemical recycling infrastructure — especially in Europe. Their Circulen product line includes both recycled and renewable-content PP and PE. What sets them apart is their footprint: they supply large industrial and packaging clients across North America and Europe, while actively pushing policy reforms for circularity. 5. BASF Though not a core polyolefins player, BASF is carving out niches in functional barrier resins , bio-based polymers , and additive solutions that improve processing and recyclability. Their ecovio ® compostable resins and additive masterbatches give them influence beyond just base polymers. They’ve also been active in LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) consulting , helping clients quantify the sustainability impact of resin choice. 6. Braskem Latin America’s largest petrochemical company and a global pioneer in bio-based polyethylene . Braskem’s I’m green™ line — made from sugarcane ethanol — is already used in consumer brands like LEGO and Natura. They’re betting big on renewable chemistry , especially in Europe and Brazil. Braskem also collaborates with recyclers and NGOs to push circular practices across emerging markets. 7. Borealis Focused on high-performance polyolefins, Borealis is particularly strong in Europe and co-owns Borouge in the Middle East. They’re investing in mechanical recycling capacity , especially through acquisitions (e.g., mtm plastics in Germany). Their emphasis is on infrastructure-compatible recyclability — designing resins that fit existing systems. They often position themselves as the “engineer’s resin partner” — offering technical depth for performance-critical applications like pharma, automotive, and heavy-duty packaging. Competitive Takeaways: Dow and SABIC are leading the circularity narrative — combining tech innovation with cross-value chain deals. ExxonMobil and LyondellBasell remain dominant in volume and infrastructure scale , especially in Asia and the Americas. Braskem and BASF bring specialty credentials — bio-based, compostable, and additive-driven innovations. The most strategic shift? Resins are becoming branding assets . PCR content, origin, and recyclability are being printed right on the label. To be honest, resin selection used to be about cost per kilo. Now it’s about carbon, compliance, and consumer trust — and the smartest players are selling all three. 5. Regional Landscape and Adoption Outlook The global packaging resins market is anything but uniform. Resin adoption varies dramatically based on waste infrastructure, policy incentives, consumer preferences , and manufacturing ecosystems . Let’s break it down region by region — because what sells in Shenzhen won’t cut it in Stuttgart. North America This region is split between legacy infrastructure and emerging circularity commitments . The U.S. and Canada still rely heavily on HDPE, LDPE , and PET , especially in food, retail, and industrial applications. However, two big shifts are underway: Brand-driven PCR demand : Retail giants like Walmart and Target are requiring suppliers to use a minimum % of post-consumer resin. Chemical recycling pilots : Players like Eastman and LyondellBasell are investing in pyrolysis and depolymerization plants to close the loop. In terms of format, rigid packaging still leads in pharmaceuticals, but flexible formats dominate snacks and e-commerce. North America is not the greenest market — but it’s where resin manufacturers have the most leverage to commercialize recycling innovation. Europe Europe is the regulatory engine of global packaging. The EU’s 2030 targets mandate all plastic packaging to be recyclable or reusable, with strict PCR minimums. That’s transforming resin demand in two ways: PET and PP are gaining : thanks to better recyclability and clarity around monomaterial design. PVC and PS are fading : due to landfill bans and EPR (extended producer responsibility) fees. The UK, Germany, France, and Scandinavia are leading with deposit-return schemes and chemical recycling credits . Resin converters here face real consequences — from tax penalties to outright bans. Europe is also a key adopter of bio-based resins , especially in premium brands and single-use foodservice. This region is where resin suppliers must match performance with proof — LCA data, recyclability certification, and traceability. Asia Pacific This is the growth engine . Over 45% of global resin demand now comes from this region — led by China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam . The drivers here are practical: Explosive growth in e-commerce and FMCG Expanding middle-class demand for packaged food and personal care National programs pushing food preservation and logistics resilience However, recyclability remains a challenge. Waste segregation and collection systems lag in many countries, so multi-layer packaging still dominates , especially in rural markets. That said, China is tightening packaging laws and investing in domestic PET recycling infrastructure . India has rolled out EPR mandates for brands. Southeast Asia is attracting investment in low-cost bioresins and refillable packaging . Asia Pacific is where the volumes lie — and where resin companies need local partnerships to succeed long-term. Latin America Brazil and Mexico are the region’s leaders. Their demand is driven by food, beverage, and agriculture exports — especially in rigid HDPE and PET packaging. PCR use is limited but growing — mostly in beverage and detergent bottles. Infrastructure remains inconsistent, so price sensitivity still rules resin selection. Government policies are uneven. Some countries offer tax breaks for recycled content, while others have yet to formalize packaging laws. The opportunity here is for cost-effective, mid-tier resin innovation — not bleeding-edge sustainability. Middle East & Africa (MEA) Still largely underpenetrated, but this region is seeing a slow rise in resin demand tied to: Urban population growth Food security logistics (cold chains, grain packaging) Local manufacturing policies in places like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and South Africa Virgin resin still dominates — especially LDPE and PP. However, NGOs and development agencies are introducing waste collection and recycling pilots , especially in East Africa. The Gulf region (especially UAE and Saudi Arabia) is investing in PET and PE recycling infrastructure , often tied to sustainability goals within their national visions. MEA isn’t just about selling resin — it’s about building the ecosystem from scratch. 6. End-User Dynamics and Use Case End users in the packaging resins market don’t just differ by industry — they differ by what they prioritize: performance, price, sustainability, or speed . And that’s exactly why resin selection is no longer just a procurement decision — it’s a strategic one. Here’s how demand plays out across sectors. 1. Food & Beverage Brands This segment consumes the most packaging resin globally. From snack films to beverage bottles, the focus here is on: Shelf-life extension (oxygen/moisture barriers) Lightweighting (less plastic, lower transport cost) Recyclability and PCR content (especially in Europe and North America) Brands like Coca-Cola, Nestlé, and PepsiCo are setting PCR inclusion targets — some aiming for 50%+ rPET in bottles by 2030. As a result, converters are under pressure to use food-grade recycled resin that still delivers clarity and strength. For multilayer flexible formats, food brands are working on monomaterial redesigns using advanced PP and PE grades. 2. Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Packaging The stakes are higher here: barrier integrity, sterility, and tamper resistance are non-negotiable. HDPE and PP are the go-to resins for: IV fluid bottles Pill containers Blister packs (with PVC and PET) This sector is more conservative in adopting recycled content due to regulatory hurdles . That said, many firms are experimenting with PCR in secondary packaging — like overwraps and cartons. Healthcare buyers often demand stability over innovation — so resin suppliers here must guarantee long-term availability, compliance, and consistent physical properties. 3. Consumer Goods and Personal Care These brands are chasing two things: shelf appeal and sustainability . Think shampoo bottles, detergent jugs, or lotion tubes. Here, PET and PP dominate for rigid formats; LDPE for tubes. The pressure is on for refillable packaging, pump redesigns, and reusable resin systems . Brands like Unilever and L’Oréal are piloting rPP -based refill systems and investing in reusable HDPE bottle loops. PCR clarity still poses a challenge for high-end cosmetics. Many brands now compromise: virgin outer packaging, recycled inner packaging — a design tradeoff that’s becoming standard. 4. Industrial and Logistics Applications This segment includes resin-heavy formats like: Bulk containers (IBC totes) Stretch films and pallet wrap Agricultural sacks Here, HDPE and LLDPE are favored for their toughness and puncture resistance. Recyclability takes a backseat — unless mandated by clients (e.g., in automotive or electronics logistics). However, this segment is now experimenting with PCR stretch films and reusable secondary packaging — especially in the EU. Use Case Spotlight A global dairy brand in Southeast Asia was struggling with spoilage and logistics cost in its yogurt pouch line. The pouches used multilayer films (PE-PA-PE), which weren’t recyclable and added cost due to waste handling. To solve this, they partnered with a local resin converter to trial a high-barrier monomaterial PP film , enhanced with EVOH. The film met shelf-life standards and allowed for closed-loop recovery using mechanical recycling. The result? 28% drop in material cost per unit 92% recyclability across test markets Brand lift from sustainability claims on-pack More importantly, it proved that resin design — when aligned with recovery systems — can unlock both environmental and financial ROI. Key Takeaways: F&B and Personal Care are driving resin innovation through public sustainability pledges. Healthcare demands consistency, not experimentation — but is open to PCR in non-critical layers. Industrial users want rugged, reliable formats — but are open to PCR where cost aligns. The resin isn't just chosen based on performance anymore. It's chosen based on what the customer can see, feel, and throw away — and how they feel about doing it. 7. Recent Developments + Opportunities & Restraints The last two years have been a high-stakes stretch for the packaging resins industry — marked by geopolitical uncertainty, resin price volatility, and a hard pivot toward sustainability. But instead of stalling innovation, these challenges have triggered one of the fastest rounds of transformation the sector has seen in decades. Recent Developments (2023–2025) Dow and SCG Chemicals launched a new fully recyclable stand-up pouch in late 2024, using all-PE construction and compatibilizer additives. Designed for food and homecare applications, the format supports curbside recyclability and downgauging. Eastman opened its $250 million molecular recycling facility in Tennessee in 2024. The plant uses methanolysis to break down hard-to-recycle PET into monomers, which are then repolymerized into food-grade rPET . In 2023, Braskem partnered with LyondellBasell to co-develop advanced PCR-PP grades for use in cosmetics and food containers — a space traditionally dominated by virgin polymers. SABIC signed a long-term resin supply deal with Unilever , supplying chemically recycled PP for personal care products across Europe. The agreement includes mass balance certification and lifecycle tracking. BASF announced a pilot of enzymatic recycling for multilayer PET in partnership with a German startup, aiming to tackle the most difficult-to-recycle laminated food films. Opportunities Resin Circularity as a Service Brands aren’t just buying resins anymore — they want full loop traceability . This opens the door for resin makers to bundle recycling logistics, PCR tracking, and compliance tools into their value chain. Emerging Market Leapfrogging In places like India, Vietnam, and Kenya, brands are skipping rigid formats altogether and going straight to recyclable mono-material flexible pouches . That’s a sweet spot for converters working with advanced PE and PP. Rigid Packaging Renaissance in Healthcare and Foodservice As regulators scrutinize food contact materials, brands are moving back to rigid PET and PP containers that are easier to sterilize, stack, and recycle. Resin suppliers offering food-grade PCR or bio-based variants can capitalize. Restraints Resin Price Instability Feedstock pricing remains volatile — driven by oil price swings, transportation costs, and supply disruptions (e.g., Middle East shipping tensions). This makes long-term resin pricing unpredictable for converters. Recycling Infrastructure Gaps Many regions lack reliable collection, sorting, and cleaning capacity. So even if a resin is technically recyclable, it may never be recovered. This creates friction for brand owners trying to meet recyclability targets. Truth is, this market isn’t held back by lack of demand. It’s held back by gaps in execution: price clarity, infrastructure reliability, and stakeholder alignment. But when those align — the resin flows fast. 7.1. Report Coverage Table Report Attribute Details Forecast Period 2024 – 2030 Market Size Value in 2024 USD 278.4 Billion Revenue Forecast in 2030 USD 395.7 Billion Overall Growth Rate CAGR of 6.0% (2024 – 2030) Base Year for Estimation 2024 Historical Data 2019 – 2023 Unit USD Million, CAGR (2024 – 2030) Segmentation By Resin Type, By Packaging Type, By End Use, By Geography By Resin Type Polyethylene (PE), Polypropylene (PP), Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), Polystyrene (PS), Others By Packaging Type Flexible Packaging, Rigid Packaging By End Use Food & Beverage, Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Goods, Industrial By Region North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa Country Scope U.S., Canada, Germany, UK, China, India, Japan, Brazil, South Africa, UAE, etc. Market Drivers - Push for recyclability and design-for-circularity - Growth in e-commerce and FMCG - Regulatory pressure on virgin resin use Customization Option Available upon request Frequently Asked Question About This Report Q1. How big is the packaging resins market? The global packaging resins market is valued at USD 278.4 billion in 2024. Q2. What is the projected size of the packaging resins market by 2030? The market is expected to reach USD 395.7 billion by 2030, growing at a 6.0% CAGR. Q3. Who are the key players in the packaging resins industry? Leading companies include Dow, ExxonMobil, SABIC, Braskem, BASF, LyondellBasell, and Borealis. Q4. Which region is the largest and fastest-growing in the market? Asia Pacific leads the market in both volume and growth, driven by e-commerce, urbanization, and rising consumer demand. Q5. What factors are driving demand for packaging resins? Rising demand for sustainable packaging, mono-material design, and PCR content are key growth drivers, along with expansion in food, healthcare, and logistics sectors. Table of Contents for Packaging Resins Market Report (2024–2030) Executive Summary Market Overview Market Attractiveness by Resin Type, Packaging Type, End Use, and Region Strategic Insights from Key Executives Historical Market Size and Future Projections (2022–2030) Summary of Market Segmentation Market Share Analysis Leading Players by Revenue and Market Share Market Share Analysis by Resin Type, Packaging Type, End Use Investment Opportunities in the Packaging Resins Market Key Developments and Innovations Mergers, Acquisitions, and Strategic Partnerships High-Growth Segments for Investment Market Introduction Definition and Scope of the Study Market Structure and Key Findings Overview of Top Investment Pockets Research Methodology Research Process Overview Primary and Secondary Research Approaches Market Size Estimation and Forecasting Techniques Market Dynamics Key Market Drivers Challenges and Restraints Impacting Growth Emerging Opportunities for Stakeholders Regulatory Pressures and Circular Economy Trends Impact of Waste Management and EPR Frameworks Global Packaging Resins Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2022–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) By Resin Type Polyethylene (PE) Polypropylene (PP) Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Polystyrene (PS) Others By Packaging Type Flexible Packaging Rigid Packaging By End Use Food & Beverage Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Consumer Goods Industrial By Region North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa Regional Market Analysis North America Historical and Forecasted Market Size Market Breakdown by Resin Type, Packaging Type, and End Use Country-Level: U.S., Canada, Mexico Europe Country-Level: Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain, Rest of Europe Asia-Pacific Country-Level: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Rest of Asia-Pacific Latin America Country-Level: Brazil, Argentina, Rest of Latin America Middle East & Africa Country-Level: GCC Countries, South Africa, Rest of MEA Key Players and Competitive Analysis Dow ExxonMobil SABIC BASF Braskem LyondellBasell Borealis Appendix Abbreviations and Terminologies References and Sources List of Tables Market Size by Segment (2024–2030) Regional Market Breakdown by Segment List of Figures Market Dynamics: Drivers, Restraints, Opportunities Competitive Landscape by Market Share Growth Strategies by Key Players Regional Snapshot: 2024 vs. 2030