Report Description Table of Contents Introduction And Strategic Context The Global HVAC Relay Market will witn ess a robust CAGR of 6.8%, valued at 3.1 billion dollars in 2024 , expected to appreciate and reach 4.6 billion dollars by 2030 , confirms Strategic Market Research. HVAC relays are the control workhorses inside heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning equipment. They switch compressors, blowers, pumps, and valves. And as systems get smarter and more electrified, these compact devices carry a bigger strategic load than their size suggests. What’s shaping the next cycle? First, efficiency mandates. Tighter building codes and minimum efficiency standards are pushing OEMs to redesign control circuits for finer, faster switching. That naturally favors relays with higher endurance, lower coil power, and tighter tolerances. Second, the global pivot to variable-speed and inverter-based systems raises the bar on relay reliability under more frequent cycling and electrical noise. Third, the heat pump boom in residential and light commercial markets is broadening use across climates that historically leaned on gas furnaces. More installed heat pumps equals more relay sockets per unit — from crankcase heaters to defrost controls. Digitalization is another tailwind. Connected thermostats, zone controllers, and building management systems are coordinating more components at once. That creates a need for relays that can handle rapid actuation and play nicely with solid-state drivers and low-voltage logic. It also opens the door for solid-state relays in specific noise -sensitive or high-cycle subassemblies. That said, electromechanical relays remain the backbone in compressors and fan circuits where isolation, surge robustness, and cost discipline matter most. Supply resilience still matters. Component shortages in recent years taught HVAC OEMs to dual -source coils, contacts, and housings. As a result, qualification cycles are now stricter, and vendors that can prove consistent thermal performance and contact life across temperature and humidity swings are winning preferred status. Sustainability is an emerging angle too. OEMs are asking for halogen -free plastics, lower coil wattage to trim standby load, and recyclability documentation to meet corporate ESG targets. The stakeholder map spans relay manufacturers, HVAC equipment OEMs, contract manufacturers, distributors, building automation integrators, installers and service contractors, semiconductor suppliers, testing and certification bodies, utilities running efficiency programs, and regulators. Each group pushes a slightly different requirement: OEMs press for cost and lifetime; contractors care about footprint and wiring simplicity; integrators want clean signals and noise immunity; utilities want demand-response readiness; regulators want safer, quieter systems. Market Segmentation And Forecast Scope This section lays out how the HVAC relay market breaks down across products, use cases, channels, and regions. It also clarifies what’s inside the forecasting boundary for 2024 to 2030. The structure balances how OEMs design control circuits and how service teams replace parts in the field. By Relay Type Two product families anchor this market: electromechanical and solid-state. Electromechanical devices remain the workhorse in compressors, fans, pumps, and heating elements due to isolation, surge tolerance, and cost discipline. Solid-state parts are gaining ground in high-cycle, low-noise tasks such as damper actuation, zoning, and inverter-adjacent control where silent operation and long life matter. Electromechanical relays account for an estimated 72 per cent of 2024 shipments, unit mix at major HVAC OEMs and distributors. Solid-state is the fastest-growing slice through 2030 as variable-speed architectures proliferate. By Form Factor and Mounting Designers pick among PCB mount for tight control boards, plug-in or socketed bodies for quick field swap, and DIN-rail or panel formats for control panels and rooftops. PCB mount leads new inverterized platforms where footprint and thermal behavior are tightly managed. Plug-in styles are sticky in the aftermarket because they cut truck-roll time. DIN-rail stays relevant in retrofits and large air handlers. By Load and Coil Ratings Load classes typically fall into signal and control (<10 A), general power (10–30 A), and heavy duty (>30 A) depending on the function triggered (e.g., fan motors, auxiliary heaters, solenoids). Coil options span 5–24 VDC and 24 VAC common to thermostats and control boards, up to 120/240 VAC in legacy gear. Growth tilts toward low-wattage coils that trim standby draw and help OEMs meet efficiency targets. By Application Core applications include residential HVAC (furnaces, heat pumps, ductless), light commercial rooftops and VRF, larger commercial and industrial air-handling systems, and stationary refrigeration and cold chain. Residential commands about 38 percent of 2024 unit demand, installed-base replacement and new heat pump adoption. Light commercial and VRF post the steepest growth curves as buildings chase tighter zoning and demand-response readiness. By Sales Channel Two routes dominate: OEM integration and aftermarket/service. OEM wins the volume in new equipment and platform refreshes, locking in multi-year part numbers. Aftermarket is resilient, driven by contractor networks, truck stock, and distributor programs. As controls digitize, OEM share rises, but the installed base ensures a steady replacement flow through service channels. By Region North America and Europe prioritize reliability, safety approvals, and low coil wattage under stringent building codes. Asia Pacific drives volume with aggressive adoption of inverter systems and heat pumps, expanding the PCB-mount opportunity. LAMEA is mixed: cost-sensitive projects favor rugged electromechanical designs, while Gulf and Latin urban hubs adopt panelized controls in large HVAC plants. Forecast Scope and Boundaries The forecast covers relays (electromechanical and solid-state) designed for HVAC and refrigeration equipment across residential, commercial, and industrial settings. It includes relays used to switch fans, compressors via interposing control, pumps, valves, dampers, defrost, and crankcase heaters. Exclusions: pure-play industrial machinery relays unrelated to HVAC, automotive air-conditioning, and standalone motor contactors sold outside HVAC assemblies. Revenues are tracked in USD, calendar years 2024 to 2030, with top-down triangulation against OEM production, replacement cycles, and distributor sell-through. Market Trends And Innovation Landscape The HVAC relay market is undergoing a significant transformation, shaped by rapid technological innovation, evolving building standards, and the increasing emphasis on sustainability. Relays, as critical switching devices, serve as the backbone of HVAC control systems, managing compressors, fans, and blowers while ensuring energy efficiency and system reliability. Between 2024 and 2030, the innovation landscape will be marked by smart integration, advanced materials, and growing adoption of digital interfaces that align with the global push toward automation and greener infrastructure. One of the most prominent trends is the integration of smart relays with IoT -enabled HVAC systems . These devices allow real-time monitoring of electrical loads, predictive fault detection, and seamless integration with building management systems (BMS). The move toward connected HVAC systems reflects the demand from commercial and industrial facilities for higher energy optimization and lower operational downtime. Experts suggest that IoT -enabled relays could reduce HVAC energy waste by up to 20%, positioning them as a core enabler of sustainable building operations. Another defining trend is the shift toward solid-state relays (SSR) . Unlike traditional electromechanical relays, SSRs offer advantages such as longer operational life, silent operation, and faster switching. This is especially valuable in HVAC applications where frequent cycling is common. Manufacturers are increasingly investing in R&D to improve SSR thermal management, ensuring their performance in large-scale industrial cooling and ventilation systems. Energy efficiency mandates are also shaping innovation. Regulatory frameworks in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific are compelling manufacturers to deliver relays that support high-efficiency compressors and variable-speed drives. This has led to the rise of programmable relays that adapt switching functions based on load requirements, directly contributing to reduced carbon footprints. In fact, many new commercial buildings in the EU and U.S. are already specifying energy-compliant relay systems as part of green building certification processes. The adoption of miniaturized and modular relay designs is gaining traction. With HVAC systems being installed in more compact residential units, relays are being re-engineered to occupy less panel space without compromising performance. This modular approach also enables easier replacement and customization, which is highly valued in retrofit projects across aging infrastructure. Partnerships and collaborations between HVAC equipment manufacturers and relay developers are becoming increasingly common. Several leading OEMs are co-developing HVAC relays tailored to advanced compressors, heat pumps, and smart thermostats. This collaborative ecosystem not only accelerates time-to-market but also ensures compatibility and reliability across complex HVAC systems. A final trend reshaping the landscape is the integration of AI-driven predictive control within relay systems . By embedding intelligence at the relay level, manufacturers are enabling HVAC systems to self-adjust in real time to changing environmental conditions. For example, a predictive relay module can anticipate compressor overload conditions and adjust fan cycles accordingly, extending system lifespan and improving energy balance. Overall, the innovation trajectory in the HVAC relay market is moving away from being a purely mechanical component industry to becoming a cornerstone of digitalized, sustainable, and high-efficiency building infrastructure. The next five years will not only witness product evolution but also the strategic repositioning of relays as essential enablers of smart energy management. Competitive Intelligence And Benchmarking The HVAC relay market is moderately consolidated, with a mix of global electrical giants, specialized relay manufacturers, and regional players catering to OEM and aftermarket demand. Competition hinges on three pillars: product reliability, alignment with energy standards, and partnerships with HVAC equipment makers. The field is also being reshaped by digitalization, which favors companies capable of embedding intelligence and connectivity into relay solutions. Schneider Electric maintains a strong global presence through its extensive portfolio of control and automation products. Its HVAC relay strategy centers on integrating energy-efficient relays into broader building management systems. Schneider leverages its EcoStruxure platform, enabling seamless interoperability between relays, smart thermostats, and facility management tools. This ecosystem approach positions the company as a preferred partner for commercial projects in Europe and North America. Siemens focuses on advanced building automation integration, particularly in Europe and Asia. Its relays are optimized for variable-speed compressors and inverter systems, helping OEMs meet stringent energy regulations. Siemens also invests heavily in R&D around predictive maintenance, embedding software-driven intelligence to reduce downtime. Analysts note that Siemens’ ability to combine hardware with digital services is setting a new competitive benchmark in the sector. Honeywell plays a dual role as both an HVAC equipment manufacturer and a component supplier. Its relay products are often designed in-house for integration with its thermostats, zone controllers, and air quality systems. This vertical integration gives Honeywell cost and compatibility advantages. The company is also active in smart home and light commercial segments, where silent, compact, and IoT -ready relays are in demand. Omron Corporation distinguishes itself with innovations in solid-state relays and miniaturized relay modules. Omron’s focus is on high-cycle reliability, making its products well-suited for systems that operate under frequent load switching. Its stronghold in Asia, particularly Japan and China, allows it to cater to high-volume OEM contracts. Omron’s partnerships with electronics and semiconductor firms also accelerate its ability to deliver more compact, digitally-compatible relays. TE Connectivity leverages its expertise in connectors and sensors to design HVAC relays with enhanced durability and thermal performance. TE emphasizes coil efficiency and recyclable materials, aligning with OEM sustainability targets. Its strong distribution network supports both OEM supply and aftermarket channels, giving it wide geographic reach. Panasonic Electric Works is expanding its HVAC relay portfolio with a focus on compact relays designed for residential systems and ductless mini-splits. Panasonic benefits from the surge in heat pump installations, particularly in Asia and Europe, where it has established partnerships with leading HVAC OEMs. The company’s strength lies in scaling manufacturing capacity while maintaining competitive pricing. Eaton targets industrial and large commercial HVAC projects with robust electromechanical relays and contactors. Its products are known for thermal endurance and safety certifications, key factors for large installations. Eaton also invests in modular relay architectures, supporting contractors who need flexibility in panel design and field service. Benchmarking across these players shows three clear differentiators. First, companies like Siemens and Schneider are setting themselves apart with digital integration into building management ecosystems. Second, Omron and Panasonic are leading the way in miniaturization and solid-state adoption . Third, Eaton and TE Connectivity are emphasizing durability, safety, and sustainability credentials to secure long-term OEM contracts. Regional Landscape And Adoption Outlook North America Adoption is driven by strict building codes, utility rebates for efficiency, and a large retrofit base. OEMs standardize on relays that pair cleanly with variable -speed drives and low -wattage coils. Contractors still favor plug -in bodies for fast swap in rooftops and split systems. Data centers and life -science campuses add demand for higher endurance parts that tolerate frequent cycling and electrical noise. The United States leads in building automation tie -ins, while Canada’s colder climate sustains heat pump retrofits that add relay sockets per install. Expect tighter UL and energy compliance to keep qualification cycles long, which benefits suppliers with stable test data and multi -site manufacturing. Europe Regulation and electrification set the tone. Heat pump incentives, noise limits, and eco -design rules push relays toward silent operation, low standby power, and halogen -free materials. Germany, the Nordics, and the Netherlands are early movers on high -efficiency residential systems, which favors PCB -mount relays with low coil draw. Southern Europe shows steady commercial upgrades, often panelized with DIN -rail hardware for large air handlers and chillers. Distributors look for multi -standard approvals to cover cross -border projects. Vendors that document recyclability and environmental compliance at the component level gain a procurement edge with EU public tenders. Asia Pacific This is the volume engine. China and Southeast Asia continue to roll out inverter -based residential AC and VRF in commercial mid -rise buildings, which tilts designs to compact PCB relays and select solid -state devices near sensitive electronics. Japan and South Korea remain quality -driven and value silent, long -life switching in high -density housing. India is a price -sensitive growth story: light commercial and residential demand is expanding fast, yet service networks need rugged electromechanical parts that tolerate voltage fluctuations. Regional OEMs favor suppliers who can localize coils, contacts, and plastics to avoid import bottlenecks. APAC buyers prize short lead times over niche features; qualifying a second source is now standard practice after recent supply shocks. Latin America Middle East and Africa Procurement is mixed and project -led. Brazil and Mexico anchor Latin America with steady commercial retrofits and rising use of panel relays in malls, hospitals, and logistics hubs. In the Gulf, large district cooling and premium towers rely on high -capacity control panels; approvals and heat tolerance are paramount. Parts of Africa prioritize durability and easy field replacement due to intermittent power and limited spares, so socketed electromechanical relays remain the default. Financing and public -private programs influence product choice as much as specs. Winning here often means offering a good -better -best ladder and training installers on wiring, surge protection, and swap procedures. Cross -Regional Themes Three patterns cut across regions. First, tighter efficiency targets are moving demand toward low -wattage coils and high -cycle life, regardless of climate. Second, the shift to variable -speed compressors increases switching events, which raises the bar on contact materials and thermal design. Third, risk -mitigation is now a purchase criterion: dual sourcing, multi -plant tooling, and transparent life -test data are being written into frame agreements. For suppliers, the playbook differs by region, but the message is consistent: prove endurance, reduce standby loss, simplify service, and ship on time. Those that tick all four boxes become preferred partners during platform refreshes and national retrofit programs. End-User Dynamics And Use Case The HVAC relay market serves a diverse set of end users, each with distinct needs for energy efficiency, safety, and operational continuity. Adoption patterns differ significantly between large commercial facilities, residential setups, and industrial environments, depending on system complexity and the scale of climate control requirements. Residential Sector Homeowners rely on HVAC relays primarily within air conditioning units, heating systems, and smart thermostats. The growing penetration of smart homes and IoT -enabled HVAC solutions is amplifying relay use for efficient load switching and automated climate control. End users in this category demand affordability, low-noise operation, and high reliability, as even minor failures can disrupt comfort in living spaces. Commercial Sector In office complexes, retail spaces, and educational institutions, HVAC relays play a crucial role in managing multiple zones and integrating advanced building management systems (BMS). The emphasis here is on precision control, energy optimization, and seamless compatibility with digital automation systems. Facility managers often prioritize relays with enhanced durability and real-time monitoring capabilities to support sustainability targets and reduce operational costs. Industrial Sector Factories, warehouses, and data centers require relays capable of handling higher loads, frequent switching, and continuous operation under demanding conditions. Industrial users prioritize ruggedness, safety certifications, and high-voltage relay designs that prevent downtime. These sectors are also early adopters of predictive maintenance tools, making advanced relays with diagnostic capabilities especially valuable. Automotive HVAC The automotive industry represents a specialized but fast-growing segment. Relays are integral in vehicle HVAC systems, particularly in electric vehicles (EVs), where efficient cabin climate control is essential without draining battery performance. Automotive end users focus on miniaturized relay designs that balance power density with thermal efficiency. Healthcare and Specialty Facilities Hospitals, laboratories, and clean rooms depend on highly reliable HVAC systems to maintain controlled environments. Here, relays are selected for their precision, redundancy, and compliance with strict safety regulations. Any failure can compromise sensitive operations, making quality and certification paramount. Use Case Highlight A leading hospital in Germany upgraded its central HVAC system as part of a carbon footprint reduction initiative. The facility deployed advanced relays integrated with an AI-powered building management system to regulate air quality, humidity, and temperature across multiple wards. By shifting from legacy relays to smart relays with diagnostic feedback, the hospital achieved a 15% reduction in energy consumption within the first year, while also lowering maintenance callouts by 20%. The case demonstrates how advanced relay systems can go beyond switching functions, delivering operational efficiency and supporting sustainability commitments in mission-critical environments. The varied end-user dynamics reflect the adaptability of HVAC relays to multiple industries. Whether enhancing comfort in homes, driving efficiency in data centers, or ensuring environmental compliance in healthcare, relays form the backbone of reliable and responsive HVAC systems worldwide. Recent Developments + Opportunities & Restraints Recent Developments (Last 2 Years) Schneider Electric expanded its EcoStruxure Building platform in 2023 by introducing new relay modules designed for seamless integration with smart HVAC controls, strengthening its position in commercial automation. Omron Corporation announced a new line of solid-state relays optimized for inverter-based HVAC systems, focusing on miniaturization and high-cycle reliability. Honeywell partnered with a U.S.-based building automation provider in 2022 to co-develop HVAC relay solutions that support predictive maintenance and IoT integration. TE Connectivity launched halogen-free relay variants in 2023, aligning with the sustainability requirements of European HVAC equipment manufacturers. Eaton invested in modular relay assembly lines in India to address growing demand for localized supply in the Asia Pacific region. Opportunities Rising adoption of smart buildings and IoT -enabled HVAC systems is creating strong demand for intelligent relays capable of real-time diagnostics and predictive maintenance. Expansion of heat pumps in residential and light commercial markets in North America and Europe presents new opportunities, as each unit requires multiple relay sockets. Push for green building certifications and energy efficiency mandates is driving OEMs to specify low-coil-power, recyclable, and halogen-free relay designs. Restraints High initial qualification and compliance costs create barriers for smaller players seeking to enter OEM supply chains, particularly in regulated regions such as the EU and North America. Component shortages and supply chain disruptions can delay production cycles, forcing OEMs to dual-source and prolonging time-to-market for new designs. 7.1. Report Coverage Table Report Attribute Details Forecast Period 2024 – 2030 Market Size Value in 2024 USD 3.1 Billion Revenue Forecast in 2030 USD 4.6 Billion Overall Growth Rate CAGR of 6.8% (2024 – 2030) Base Year for Estimation 2024 Historical Data 2019 – 2023 Unit USD Million, CAGR (2024 – 2030) Segmentation By Relay Type, By Form Factor & Mounting, By Load & Coil Ratings, By Application, By Sales Channel, By Region By Relay Type Electromechanical, Solid-State By Form Factor & Mounting PCB Mount, Plug-In/Socketed, DIN-Rail/Panel By Load & Coil Ratings Signal & Control (<10 A), General Power (10–30 A), Heavy Duty (>30 A); Coil Ratings: 5–24 VDC, 24 VAC, 120/240 VAC By Application Residential HVAC, Light Commercial, Commercial & Industrial Systems, Refrigeration By Sales Channel OEM Integration, Aftermarket/Service By Region North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa Country Scope U.S., Canada, Germany, UK, France, China, Japan, India, Brazil, Mexico, GCC Countries, South Africa Market Drivers - Expansion of smart and connected HVAC systems - Rising adoption of heat pumps in residential and commercial markets - Energy efficiency regulations and green building certifications Customization Option Available upon request Frequently Asked Question About This Report Q1: How big is the HVAC Relay Market? A1: The global HVAC relay market was valued at USD 3.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.6 billion by 2030. Q2: What is the CAGR of the HVAC Relay Market for the forecast period? A2: The HVAC relay market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 6.8% from 2024 to 2030. Q3: Who are the major players in the HVAC Relay Market? A3: Leading players include Schneider Electric, Siemens, Honeywell, Omron Corporation, TE Connectivity, Panasonic Electric Works, and Eaton. Q4: Which region dominates the HVAC Relay Market? A4: Asia Pacific dominates due to large-scale adoption of inverter-based HVAC systems and heat pumps, while North America and Europe lead in regulatory-driven adoption of energy-efficient relays. Q5: What factors are driving the growth of the HVAC Relay Market? A5: Growth is fueled by rising adoption of smart HVAC systems, expansion of heat pumps in residential and light commercial spaces, and global emphasis on energy efficiency and green building standards. Table of Contents for HVAC Relay Market Report (2024–2030) Executive Summary • Market Overview • Market Attractiveness by Relay Type, Application, End User, and Region • Strategic Insights from Key Executives (CXO Perspective) • Historical Market Size and Future Projections (2019–2030) • Summary of Market Segmentation by Relay Type, Application, End User, and Region Market Share Analysis • Leading Players by Revenue and Market Share • Market Share Analysis by Relay Type, Application, and End User Investment Opportunities in the HVAC Relay Market • Key Developments and Innovations • Mergers, Acquisitions, and Strategic Partnerships • High-Growth Segments for Investment Market Introduction • Definition and Scope of the Study • Market Structure and Key Findings • Overview of Top Investment Pockets Research Methodology • Research Process Overview • Primary and Secondary Research Approaches • Market Size Estimation and Forecasting Techniques Market Dynamics • Key Market Drivers • Challenges and Restraints Impacting Growth • Emerging Opportunities for Stakeholders • Impact of Behavioral and Regulatory Factors • Technological Advances in HVAC Relay Design Global HVAC Relay Market Analysis • Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) • Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Relay Type • Electromechanical Relays • Solid-State Relays Market Analysis by Form Factor and Mounting • PCB Mount • Plug-In / Socketed • DIN-Rail / Panel Market Analysis by Load and Coil Ratings • Signal and Control (<10 A) • General Power (10–30 A) • Heavy Duty (>30 A) • Coil Ratings: 5–24 VDC, 24 VAC, 120/240 VAC Market Analysis by Application • Residential HVAC • Light Commercial HVAC • Commercial and Industrial Systems • Refrigeration and Cold Chain Market Analysis by Sales Channel • OEM Integration • Aftermarket / Service Market Analysis by Region • North America • Europe • Asia Pacific • Latin America • Middle East and Africa North America HVAC Relay Market Analysis • Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) • Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) • Market Analysis by Relay Type • Market Analysis by Form Factor and Mounting • Market Analysis by Load and Coil Ratings • Market Analysis by Application • Market Analysis by Sales Channel • Country-Level Breakdown: United States Canada Mexico Europe HVAC Relay Market Analysis • Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) • Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) • Market Analysis by Relay Type • Market Analysis by Form Factor and Mounting • Market Analysis by Load and Coil Ratings • Market Analysis by Application • Market Analysis by Sales Channel • Country-Level Breakdown: Germany United Kingdom France Italy Spain Rest of Europe Asia Pacific HVAC Relay Market Analysis • Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) • Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) • Market Analysis by Relay Type • Market Analysis by Form Factor and Mounting • Market Analysis by Load and Coil Ratings • Market Analysis by Application • Market Analysis by Sales Channel Country-Level Breakdown: China India Japan South Korea Rest of Asia Pacific Latin America HVAC Relay Market Analysis • Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) • Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) • Market Analysis by Relay Type • Market Analysis by Form Factor and Mounting • Market Analysis by Load and Coil Ratings • Market Analysis by Application • Market Analysis by Sales Channel Country-Level Breakdown: Brazil Argentina Rest of Latin America Middle East and Africa HVAC Relay Market Analysis • Historical Market Size and Volume (2019–2023) • Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) • Market Analysis by Relay Type • Market Analysis by Form Factor and Mounting • Market Analysis by Load and Coil Ratings • Market Analysis by Application • Market Analysis by Sales Channel Country-Level Breakdown: GCC Countries South Africa Rest of Middle East and Africa Key Players and Competitive Analysis • Schneider Electric • Siemens AG • Honeywell • Omron Corporation • TE Connectivity • Panasonic Electric Works • Eaton Corporation • Others Appendix • Abbreviations and Terminologies Used in the Report • References and Sources List of Tables • Market Size by Relay Type, Form Factor, Load Rating, Application, and Region (2024–2030) • Regional Market Breakdown by Segment Type (2024–2030) List of Figures • Market Dynamics: Drivers, Restraints, Opportunities, and Challenges • Regional Market Snapshot for Key Regions • Competitive Landscape and Market Share Analysis • Growth Strategies Adopted by Key Players • Market Share by Relay Type and Application (2024 vs. 2030)