Report Description Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Strategic Context The Global Hinokitiol Market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.8% , with an estimated value of USD 412 million in 2024 , expected to reach around USD 613 million by 2030 , according to Strategic Market Research. Hinokitiol is a naturally occurring monoterpenoid found in the wood of trees such as Hinoki (Japanese cypress) and certain types of cedar. Known for its potent antimicrobial, antioxidant, and anti-inflammatory properties, it’s rapidly transitioning from a niche phytochemical to a multifunctional ingredient in cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and oral care formulations. What’s driving this momentum? A confluence of regulatory shifts, wellness-driven consumer preferences, and scientific validation. In the past, hinokitiol was mostly used in Japan and Korea under strict natural product regulations. Now, Western markets are catching up — particularly in dermaceuticals and clean-label cosmeceuticals. Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical sector is exploring hinokitiol as a topical antibiotic alternative, thanks to its ability to disrupt bacterial ion homeostasis without triggering resistance. Rising awareness of non-antibiotic antimicrobial pathways is prompting dermatologists and formulators to seek alternatives to triclosan, chlorhexidine, and even benzoyl peroxide. Hinokitiol’s plant origin, paired with low toxicity, makes it a top candidate. Also, clinical data is building around its use in treating skin conditions like acne, eczema, and atopic dermatitis. Several nutraceutical brands are also beginning to explore its systemic anti-inflammatory potential. Stakeholders in this market span a wide range. Cosmetic formulators , dermaceutical brands , and pharmaceutical R&D units are major demand drivers. Raw ingredient suppliers and contract manufacturers in Japan, South Korea, and increasingly, China, play a key upstream role. Meanwhile, regulatory bodies and toxicology boards in the EU and U.S. are increasingly scrutinizing active botanical ingredients — pushing players to invest in purity, safety, and traceability. The supply chain is another key factor. Hinokitiol is not easily extracted in high volumes, and synthetic alternatives have yet to match the efficacy of natural versions. This scarcity adds a premium positioning to the compound — but also limits scale for now. In short, hinokitiol is no longer just a botanical curiosity. It's carving out serious real estate across advanced skincare, biopharma, and even dental therapeutics. And as demand grows, so does the need for reliable sourcing, standardized quality, and application-specific innovation. 2. Market Segmentation and Forecast Scope The hinokitiol market cuts across several verticals — each with its own regulatory expectations, product development timelines, and consumer drivers. While it may look like a niche compound, its segmentation actually spans three distinct commercial logics: skin health, oral care, and therapeutic R&D. Here’s how the landscape breaks down: By Application Cosmeceuticals and Skincare The dominant segment in 2024, accounting for roughly 47% of total market share , driven by rising demand for anti-inflammatory, antibacterial actives in premium skincare. Hinokitiol is increasingly featured in acne, anti-aging, and barrier-repair serums — often replacing traditional synthetics with cleaner, bioactive alternatives. Pharmaceutical and Therapeutic Use An emerging segment focused on topical antimicrobials, wound healing formulations, and experimental use in inflammatory diseases. Ongoing preclinical trials explore its role in psoriasis and microbial resistance prevention. Oral and Dental Care Toothpastes, mouthwashes, and gum treatments are being reformulated with hinokitiol to replace chlorhexidine, given its gentler microbiome impact. This segment is growing fast, especially in Japan, South Korea, and premium U.S. dental brands. Nutraceuticals and Dietary Supplements Still small, but under early exploration. Brands are evaluating hinokitiol for systemic inflammation, gut health, and oxidative stress. Entry is slow due to limited ingestion-safety data outside Asia. By Form Type Pure Hinokitiol (Isolated Crystals) Used mainly in medical-grade and research applications. Expensive but preferred for purity. Extract Blends ( Hinokitiol + Terpenoids) Common in cosmetic use, especially in products that combine hinokitiol with hinoki or cedarwood oils for a “forest therapy” positioning. Synthetic or Bio-identical Variants In early development. Not yet mainstream due to efficacy gaps but may help resolve scale limitations longer term. By End User Cosmetic & Personal Care Companies The largest buyers of hinokitiol by volume. Demand is growing for acne serums, cleansers, and post-procedure balms. Clean beauty brands in North America and Europe are particularly active. Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Focused on API-grade hinokitiol for dermal or oral formulations. These players seek consistent purity, stability, and documented bioactivity. Dental Product Companies Especially in Asia-Pacific, these buyers use hinokitiol in high-end toothpastes, gingivitis treatments, and post-surgical rinses. By Region Asia Pacific Leads the global market with deep-rooted usage in Japan and South Korea. Dominates both supply (ingredient production) and early-stage innovation. North America Fastest-growing region, fueled by clean-label skincare demand and dermatology-led trials in the U.S. and Canada. Europe Cautious growth due to strict cosmetic ingredient regulations, but increasing adoption in therapeutic skin products and pharma-aligned brands in Germany and France. Latin America, Middle East & Africa (LAMEA) Still nascent. Early adoption in Latin American cosmeceuticals, but limited infrastructure for medical-grade extraction or formulation. The segmentation may seem skewed toward beauty at first glance, but there’s a deeper story unfolding. As formulation science evolves and regulation catches up, hinokitiol’s position is shifting from niche botanical to evidence-backed functional active — across both health and wellness lines. 3. Market Trends and Innovation Landscape Hinokitiol may be a natural molecule, but the pace of innovation around it is anything but old-school. The past few years have seen a transformation — from simple plant extracts in artisan skincare to high-purity, clinically validated ingredients used in advanced therapeutic prototypes. Let’s break down what’s shaping the next chapter. Biotech-Led Purification and Yield Enhancement One of the biggest challenges with hinokitiol is scalability. Extracting it from natural sources like Thujopsis dolabrata (Hiba wood) isn’t just expensive — it’s resource-limited. That’s changing. Japanese and South Korean labs are developing fermentation-based synthesis methods using microbial hosts. These biotech routes could push cost per gram down by 30–40%, making hinokitiol viable for broader use beyond luxury products. Some suppliers are now offering >98% purity grades — a major leap compared to 85–90% just five years ago. R&D in Antibiotic Alternatives With antibiotic resistance on the radar globally, hinokitiol’s unique metal-chelation mechanism is drawing attention. It doesn't kill microbes through typical pathways — instead, it disrupts their ion transport systems, weakening their growth. Pharmaceutical R&D teams are trialing it in topical gels, nasal sprays, and wound dressings. In 2023, a Canadian biotech began testing a hinokitiol -based MRSA gel in preclinical studies — not as a full replacement for antibiotics, but as an adjunct with fewer side effects. As one microbiologist put it: “It’s not about replacing antibiotics. It’s about buying them time.” Cosmetic Formulation Innovation: Hinokitiol + Ceramides, Niacinamide, and Retinol Skincare brands are pairing hinokitiol with other actives to create multi-function treatments. It’s now commonly layered with niacinamide for anti-inflammatory synergy , or retinol to reduce irritation . This layering strategy is especially popular in K-beauty and J-beauty markets, and Western brands are starting to replicate the approach. Formulators report that even at 0.05% concentration, hinokitiol can reduce redness and barrier sensitivity when used with exfoliants. Dental Applications and Oral Microbiome Modulation Hinokitiol is increasingly used in oral rinse formulations that aim to preserve beneficial bacteria while targeting pathogens like Porphyromonas gingivalis . Several Japanese dental brands now market “microbiome-safe” toothpaste featuring hinokitiol as a hero ingredient. There's also interest in periodontal pocket applications using gel strips for patients post-surgery. The oral care industry is positioning hinokitiol as a ‘natural chlorhexidine without the bitterness or microbial disruption.’ Push Toward Regulatory Clarity In Europe and the U.S., regulatory ambiguity around botanical actives has kept some larger brands on the sidelines. But that’s starting to shift. Hinokitiol is being evaluated under EU cosmetic ingredient standards and may soon appear on approved ingredient annexes, thanks to its growing body of toxicology and efficacy data. This shift could unlock broader adoption in EU cosmeceuticals and dermaceuticals — particularly in inflammation-prone skin types like rosacea or seborrheic dermatitis. Partnerships and Licensing In the last 18 months, several ingredient companies have signed licensing deals to distribute hinokitiol formulations beyond Asia. A U.S.-based clean beauty incubator recently inked an exclusive deal with a Korean lab for encapsulated hinokitiol , extending shelf life and improving delivery through lipid nanoparticles. Also, some CROs and CDMOs in Europe now offer custom formulation support for hinokitiol integration — a sign the compound is entering more structured development cycles. Bottom line: This isn’t just about a single molecule. It’s about how a previously obscure terpene is being engineered, reformulated, and elevated into everything from acne gels and mouth rinses to wound-healing sprays and barrier serums. Innovation here isn’t linear — it’s combinatorial. 4. Competitive Intelligence and Benchmarking The hinokitiol market isn’t flooded with players — it’s still a focused, high-barrier space dominated by a few regional specialists and fast-moving niche innovators. What sets it apart is the overlap between science and marketing: companies that win here don’t just sell ingredients; they shape narratives around safety, efficacy, and clean performance. Let’s examine who’s leading and how. Honshu Chemical (Japan) One of the earliest and most consistent producers of high-purity hinokitiol for pharma and cosmetic use. Honshu has built a reputation for tight quality control, traceable sourcing, and regulatory readiness , especially in Asian markets. Their extraction methods are proprietary and certified by Japanese Pharmacopoeia standards, giving them an edge with both cosmeceutical and R&D buyers. Their strength? Clinical-grade hinokitiol supply with stable batch consistency — a rarity in the natural ingredient space. Maruzen Pharmaceuticals (Japan) A known player in the Asian beauty ecosystem, Maruzen markets hinokitiol extract blends with other wood-derived actives. They supply directly to J-beauty and K-beauty brands, with a portfolio that includes ready-to-use emulsions, water-soluble powders, and oil dispersions . Unlike Honshu, they lean heavily into marketing support and co-development services. Their strategy revolves around offering speed-to-market for boutique cosmetic brands — often bundling regulatory dossiers with the supply deal. Sytheon (U.S.) This New Jersey–based ingredient company is among the few actively commercializing bioidentical hinokitiol for global distribution. Their key strength is R&D transparency , offering white papers and comparative efficacy data against traditional acne and anti-aging actives. While they don’t produce at Japanese volume levels, they’ve made strong inroads into premium U.S. and EU skincare brands. Their bet? Scientifically validated, EU-compliant versions of natural actives with global scalability. Lucas Meyer Cosmetics (Canada, part of IFF) While not a producer of hinokitiol itself, Lucas Meyer is piloting formulation partnerships using hinokitiol as a featured secondary ingredient in barrier-repair and microbiome skincare. Their strength lies in formulation IP — offering brand clients access to turnkey serum and emulsion formats that include hinokitiol in proprietary delivery systems. They serve as a bridge between ingredient purity and product-market fit, especially for DTC beauty brands launching in North America and Europe. Labosmetic (South Korea) A rising player focused on encapsulation and nanocarrier formats for active botanicals. Labosmetic partners with academic labs to create lipid- and polymer-based hinokitiol carriers that improve skin penetration while minimizing oxidation. Their products are used primarily in therapeutic-grade facial masks and dermatology clinic treatments . Think of them as the “tech layer” that helps hinokitiol show up more effectively in real-world use. 5. Regional Landscape and Adoption Outlook While hinokitiol’s origins are unmistakably Japanese, its commercial footprint is expanding — but not evenly. Adoption varies sharply based on regional familiarity with botanical actives, regulatory environments, and the maturity of cosmetic and therapeutic markets. Some countries treat hinokitiol as a premium ingredient; others still don’t recognize it in their pharmacopeias . Let’s break down the geographic dynamics. Asia Pacific — The Core and Catalyst Unsurprisingly, Japan leads both production and consumption. Hinokitiol has been used here for decades in topical antiseptics, cosmetic creams, and oral rinses. Regulatory frameworks are mature, and consumer trust in traditional wood-derived actives runs deep. South Korea follows closely, incorporating hinokitiol in both K-beauty and derma clinic products, often marketed as anti-inflammatory boosters or "post-procedure soothers." China is an emerging hotspot, with dermatology clinics and cross-border e-commerce platforms (like Tmall Global) driving niche demand. However, domestic regulatory recognition is still patchy, slowing direct mass-market expansion. To put it plainly: Asia Pacific is where the story began — and where scale will happen first. North America — Fast Growth, Clean Beauty Driven The U.S. and Canada represent the fastest-growing region for hinokitiol , thanks to a clean beauty boom and mounting pressure to remove legacy antimicrobials like parabens and benzoyl peroxide. Indie skincare brands in California, New York, and Toronto are pioneering hinokitiol -infused serums and balms , often positioned around redness relief and microbiome support. On the pharma side, dermatology-led research is accelerating. Several U.S. clinics are exploring hinokitiol as a topical antibiotic alternative , especially for acne and wound care. That said, the lack of formal FDA recognition for hinokitiol in drugs limits medical application for now. Here, the focus is less about cultural familiarity and more about performance and compliance. Europe — Regulatory Drag, Niche Adoption Europe’s uptake is real, but cautious. Countries like Germany , France , and the Nordics are seeing early interest in eco-certified skincare and dermaceuticals featuring hinokitiol , but widespread adoption is slowed by EU ingredient approval processes. Brands must navigate REACH compliance and toxicology thresholds before launching. Some dermatology-driven DTC brands in the UK and France are starting to feature low-dose hinokitiol blends for sensitive-skin applications. Still, mass use won’t pick up until broader recognition under the EU Cosmetic Ingredient Database or pharma monographs is secured. Latin America, Middle East & Africa (LAMEA) — Potential, Not Yet Performance In Brazil , a major cosmetics innovation hub, there's early exploration of hinokitiol in natural skincare and after-sun products. However, local sourcing constraints and ingredient registration delays hinder commercial rollout. In the Middle East , particularly the UAE , some luxury spa chains and dermatology clinics have imported hinokitiol -based treatments from Asia — but this remains boutique-level usage. Africa is largely untapped, though South African dermacosmetic brands are scouting new actives for post-inflammatory hyperpigmentation — a potential fit for hinokitiol in the long run. Regional Outlook Summary: To be honest, hinokitiol's regional story is a tale of regulatory contrast. Where cultural familiarity exists, adoption is smooth. Where paperwork dominates, growth lags. The trick for vendors is building both education and documentation pipelines — not just product ones. 6. End-User Dynamics and Use Case Hinokitiol isn’t a plug-and-play ingredient. End users — whether skincare formulators, pharma researchers, or dental product designers — engage with it differently based on their technical needs, regulatory burden, and brand positioning. What unites them? A common demand for high-purity, low-irritation, bioactive ingredients that can differentiate formulations. Here’s how the user landscape plays out. Cosmetic and Personal Care Brands These are the most active buyers — especially in the clean beauty, sensitive skin, and anti-acne segments . Hinokitiol is prized for its ability to calm inflammation and reduce microbial load without the side effects of benzoyl peroxide or alcohol-based actives. Formulators here face a balancing act: how to use just enough hinokitiol to show results without triggering regulatory reclassification into a quasi-drug. That’s why most brands use low-dose blends (0.01–0.05%) , often paired with niacinamide, hyaluronic acid, or ceramides. These users also value supply transparency and marketing support . Many won’t touch a raw material unless it’s backed by INCI registration, white-label safety data, and sustainability certifications. Pharmaceutical and Dermatology R&D Units This group is smaller but growing — driven by the hunt for non-antibiotic topical antimicrobials . Hinokitiol’s ability to interrupt bacterial iron transport has made it a candidate for chronic wound dressings, acne patches, and even nasal decolonization sprays . Unlike cosmetic users, pharma R&D needs clinical-grade purity, documented mechanism of action, and pharmacokinetic data . That demand narrows the field to a few suppliers who can meet API specs. IP protection is also critical — many pharma teams want exclusive rights to specific delivery mechanisms using hinokitiol . Oral Care Manufacturers This segment is still niche but increasingly relevant. Brands are using hinokitiol in toothpaste, mouthwash, and gum disease formulations , especially in Japan and South Korea. It’s often marketed as a microbiome-balanced alternative to chlorhexidine — less harsh, less staining, and easier to formulate into premium SKUs. Most oral care companies seek stable emulsions and proven antimicrobial spectrum . A few are also testing hinokitiol -infused dental strips for post-procedure care. Spa Clinics and Boutique Wellness Brands Hinokitiol is gaining traction in facial oils, hydrating sprays, and recovery masks offered at high-end wellness centers in the U.S., UAE, and Southeast Asia. These buyers want pre-formulated, safe, and sensorily pleasing blends , often paired with woodsy essential oils for a “forest therapy” positioning. They’re not volume buyers, but they are early adopters — and often influencers of wider consumer trends. Use Case Highlight A dermatology-focused startup in Toronto partnered with a Canadian ingredient supplier to launch a 3-in-1 redness relief serum in 2023, featuring hinokitiol (0.03%) + niacinamide + squalane . The product was aimed at users with rosacea-prone skin and post-laser inflammation. Within four months, it became their top-selling SKU — not just because of visible skin results, but due to a marketing angle built on “botanical anti-microbials for barrier recovery.” The brand cited fewer customer complaints about stinging compared to previous formulations with azelaic acid. Dermatologist referrals increased, and the company scaled into U.S. DTC channels within six months. This example shows how hinokitiol isn’t just another anti-inflammatory — it can serve as a storytelling hero for brands that want to signal science, safety, and nature in one go. Ultimately, end users aren’t buying a molecule — they’re buying credibility, versatility, and peace of mind. Hinokitiol delivers all three when paired with the right data, delivery format, and supplier transparency. 7. Recent Developments + Opportunities & Restraints The last two years have pushed hinokitiol from niche curiosity into broader conversations across pharma, beauty, and biotech ingredient pipelines. What was once a Japan-only molecule is now entering clinical studies, clean beauty catalogs , and next-gen antimicrobial research labs. Here’s what’s been happening — and what’s coming next. Recent Developments (Last 2 Years) Sytheon (U.S.) launched Sytenol ® H , a bio-identical form of hinokitiol targeted at cosmetic formulators. It’s marketed for anti-acne and anti-aging applications, especially where clients want a botanical antimicrobial alternative to salicylic acid. Early adopters include premium DTC skincare brands in North America. A Japanese pharmaceutical R&D institute published preclinical results on a hinokitiol -based wound dressing infused with silver nanoparticles. The study showed enhanced healing rates and lower infection recurrence compared to standard gauze dressings. Labosmetic (South Korea) developed a liposomal delivery system for hinokitiol , improving its stability in water-based emulsions. The company has partnered with two regional cosmeceutical labs to incorporate the tech in overnight masks and barrier creams. A Korean university filed a patent for a dental gel containing hinokitiol and lactoferrin. The dual-action formula targets post-implant inflammation and gingival recovery. Commercialization discussions are ongoing with a major dental group in Seoul. Multiple EU clean beauty brands began listing hinokitiol in new INCI-compliant ingredient decks , signaling increasing regulatory clarity and supply chain confidence for Western formulators. Opportunities Growth in Antibiotic-Free Therapeutics As pressure mounts to curb antibiotic resistance, hinokitiol’s unique mode of action (metal chelation and microbial ion disruption) positions it as a promising adjunct or standalone active in topical antimicrobials. Pharma companies exploring alternatives for acne, chronic wounds, or post-surgical infection management are testing it in controlled studies. Clean Beauty and Microbiome-Centric Formulations Consumers and derm brands are moving beyond traditional preservatives and harsh antimicrobials. Hinokitiol fits the bill as a low-dose, gentle-but-effective antimicrobial that supports barrier health without disrupting skin flora — ideal for redness-prone and sensitive-skin formulas. Ingredient Branding and White-Label Expansion Hinokitiol is ripe for ingredient-level branding , much like niacinamide or bakuchiol. Suppliers that bundle data, safety studies, and demo formulations can license the molecule as a named active , enhancing pull-through from cosmetic brands and derm startups. Restraints Limited High-Purity Supply Chain There are only a handful of GMP-level producers capable of supplying high-purity or pharma-grade hinokitiol . That makes pricing volatile and delays common — especially for new entrants or smaller buyers lacking long-term contracts. Regulatory Ambiguity in Key Markets While Japan and Korea have formal recognition, hinokitiol remains under review or partially approved in the U.S., EU, and China. That limits its immediate use in medical or ingestible products and slows full-scale adoption in some consumer applications. 7.1. Report Coverage Table Report Attribute Details Forecast Period 2024 – 2030 Market Size Value in 2024 USD 412 Million Revenue Forecast in 2030 USD 613 Million Overall Growth Rate CAGR of 6.8% (2024 – 2030) Base Year for Estimation 2024 Historical Data 2019 – 2023 Unit USD Million, CAGR (2024 – 2030) Segmentation By Application, By Form Type, By End User, By Geography By Application Cosmeceuticals & Skincare, Pharmaceuticals, Oral Care, Nutraceuticals By Form Type Pure Hinokitiol, Extract Blends, Synthetic Variants By End User Cosmetic Brands, Pharma R&D, Dental Product Manufacturers, Spa/Wellness Brands By Region North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa Country Scope U.S., Canada, Germany, UK, France, Japan, South Korea, China, Brazil, UAE Market Drivers - Rising demand for botanical antimicrobials - Growth in clean-label skincare and pharma - Limited resistance profile of hinokitiol Customization Option Available upon request Frequently Asked Question About This Report Q1. How big is the hinokitiol market? The global hinokitiol market is estimated at USD 412 million in 2024 and projected to reach USD 613 million by 2030. Q2. What is the CAGR for the hinokitiol market during the forecast period? The market is expected to grow at a 6.8% CAGR from 2024 to 2030. Q3. Who are the major players in the hinokitiol market? Leading players include Honshu Chemical, Maruzen Pharmaceuticals, Sytheon, Lucas Meyer Cosmetics, and Labosmetic. Q4. Which region leads the hinokitiol market? Asia Pacific leads due to its established use in Japan and South Korea, mature supply chains, and regulatory clarity. Q5. What is driving the growth of the hinokitiol market? Growth is driven by clean beauty trends, demand for non-antibiotic antimicrobials, and innovation in dermatology and oral care. Table of Contents for Hinokitiol Market Report (2024–2030) Executive Summary Market Overview Market Attractiveness by Application, Form Type, End User, and Region Strategic Insights from Key Executives (CXO Perspective) Historical Market Size and Future Projections (2022–2030) Summary of Market Segmentation by Application, Form Type, End User, and Region Market Share Analysis Leading Players by Revenue and Market Share Market Share Analysis by Application, Form Type, and End User Investment Opportunities in the Hinokitiol Market Key Developments and Innovations Mergers, Acquisitions, and Strategic Partnerships High-Growth Segments for Investment Market Introduction Definition and Scope of the Study Market Structure and Key Findings Overview of Top Investment Pockets Research Methodology Research Process Overview Primary and Secondary Research Approaches Market Size Estimation and Forecasting Techniques Market Dynamics Key Market Drivers Challenges and Restraints Impacting Growth Emerging Opportunities for Stakeholders Impact of Behavioral and Regulatory Factors Global Hinokitiol Market Analysis Historical Market Size and Volume (2022–2023) Market Size and Volume Forecasts (2024–2030) Market Analysis by Application: Cosmeceuticals & Skincare Pharmaceuticals Oral Care Nutraceuticals Market Analysis by Form Type: Pure Hinokitiol Extract Blends Synthetic Variants Market Analysis by End User: Cosmetic Brands Pharma R&D Dental Product Manufacturers Spa/Wellness Brands Market Analysis by Region: North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa Regional Market Analysis North America Hinokitiol Market Historical and Forecast Market Size (2022–2030) Country-Level Breakdown: United States, Canada Europe Hinokitiol Market Country-Level Breakdown: Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Rest of Europe Asia-Pacific Hinokitiol Market Country-Level Breakdown: Japan, South Korea, China, India, Rest of Asia-Pacific Latin America Hinokitiol Market Country-Level Breakdown: Brazil, Argentina, Rest of Latin America Middle East & Africa Hinokitiol Market Country-Level Breakdown: UAE, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Rest of MEA Key Players and Competitive Analysis Honshu Chemical Maruzen Pharmaceuticals Sytheon Lucas Meyer Cosmetics Labosmetic Appendix Abbreviations and Terminologies Used in the Report References and Sources List of Tables Market Size by Application, Form Type, End User, and Region (2024–2030) Regional Market Breakdown by Segment Type (2024–2030) List of Figures Market Drivers, Restraints, and Opportunities Regional Market Snapshot Competitive Landscape and Market Share Growth Strategies Adopted by Key Players Market Share by Application and End User (2024 vs. 2030)